crypto Twitter and community engagement

From: thepipeline_xyz

Introduction

The “Pipeline” podcast hosted a “Crypto Twitter Power Hour” featuring guests Pancake, Jim Talit, Anom, and co-host Kevin, discussing various aspects of the crypto space, personal ventures, and the broader implications of technology and community engagement [00:00:01] [00:00:07].

Personal Ventures and Insights

Pancakes’ Focus

Pancakes shared that the last three years have been eventful, with significant developments in the past three months since leaving his previous job [00:05:01]. He is now focusing heavily on Wasi Verse, with merchandise and an art redrop planned, including big surprise moves [00:05:32]. Pancakes also founded a Web2 SaaS product company that quickly gained 2,000 followers on Twitter despite being a “boring” product with no token [00:05:46]. Additionally, he is co-managing a musician, Monrovia, with plans for a major U.S. tour and a headlining tour next year [00:06:07].

Pancakes is pivoting towards music and more social/creative endeavors, moving away from working on “random projects just for the sake of the money” [00:06:34] [00:06:45] [00:06:50]. In crypto, his main focus is “heavily airdropping” [00:07:00]. He primarily locks money in lending protocols, avoiding borrowing or leverage, and identifies as being “terrible at crypto” when it comes to speculation or trading, holding only a few high-conviction coins for fun [00:07:10] [00:07:29].

Pancakes received a significant JTO airdrop of $27,000 after being tipped off by Monkey Rothchild [00:07:45]. He attributes this success to the Solana ecosystem, which he finds to be an amazing and easy-to-use protocol [00:08:03] [00:09:40].

Jim Talit’s Post-Up Only Life

Jim Talit, known for his accurate market calls on the “Up Only” show, including advising to “take profit” [00:02:33] [00:02:47], has been living by his own advice [00:03:30] [00:03:37]. He continues to trade but has spent a lot of time traveling, playing golf, and attending live techno music events [00:03:41] [00:03:43] [00:03:47]. He met many crypto people at events like Singapore Eth 2049 [00:03:52] [00:03:55]. Jim currently lacks a specific investment thesis and is content trading opportunistically [00:04:06]. Despite being less vocal in crypto, he still receives online criticism for not discussing it more [00:04:14] [00:04:28].

Anom’s Solana Bullishness

Anom noted that the Solana airdrop season has been a major topic on Crypto Twitter [00:08:27]. He clarified that he doesn’t design airdrops but aims to highlight solid teams and protocols to the public [00:08:52] [00:08:57]. Anom believed that given the negative public perception of Solana, those still “farming” would greatly benefit once the chain was recognized as legitimate [00:09:04]. He observed that many still “fade” Solana, chasing “shitcoins” instead of paying attention to underlying airdrops [00:09:16]. He himself early-staked in about ten different Solana projects [00:09:29].

Anom mentioned he’s been “outside a bit” due to successful plays last year and is working on many behind-the-scenes projects that he plans to make public soon [00:10:30] [00:10:42].

Market Outlook and Industry Trends

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

The approval of the Bitcoin ETF is seen as super bullish long-term for the crypto space [00:11:01] [00:11:18]. Larry Fink’s public discussions, where he has expressed strong bullishness on crypto, including its benefits and the importance of an Ethereum ETF, have been surprising [00:11:24] [00:11:29] [00:11:35]. Anom believes an Ethereum ETF is definitely coming, though its approval this year might be less likely than Bitcoin’s due to Ethereum being newer [00:11:45] [00:11:54].

Regarding market movements, Anom predicts Bitcoin will “chop around” sideways, while altcoins will perform well for the next month or so [00:12:24] [00:12:58]. He suggests buying the dip if Bitcoin pulls back into the high $30,000s, though he isn’t currently leaning towards that scenario [00:13:00] [00:13:30].

Larry Fink’s understanding of blockchain technology’s potential to eliminate corruption through tokenized assets and public ledgers mirrors early crypto enthusiasts’ views [00:13:11] [00:13:40] [00:13:51] [00:14:00]. This suggests that “information asymmetry” about crypto’s importance is diminishing, meaning outsiders will likely see less “outsized returns” going forward [00:15:02] [00:15:24] [00:15:29].

Jim, however, questions Larry Fink’s bullishness on crypto as much as on blockchain technology, especially concerns around financial freedom and surveillance through tokenization [00:15:51] [00:15:59] [00:16:03]. He views BlackRock as monopolizing organizations that might seek to control financial freedom [00:16:38] [00:16:47]. Anom agrees that public blockchains could be used for surveillance, which goes against the philosophical beliefs of self-sovereign ownership and freedom that crypto was founded upon [00:17:11] [00:17:15]. Jim observed that many people have shifted from privacy and independence maximalism to “profit Maxis,” where financial independence is the primary goal [00:18:01] [00:18:03].

Market Volatility and Efficiency

Anom believes that while any parabolic asset will eventually see a 70-80% drawdown, this cycle will see more passive flows towards its end, leading to less volatility as crypto grows from a $1trilliontoa$10 trillion asset class [00:35:18] [00:35:46] [00:36:00]. He hopes for fewer bad actors as regulatory clarity improves, noting that current financial regulations are outdated for crypto and will eventually be modified [00:36:12] [00:36:18] [00:36:44].

Jim stated that thinking “this time is different” is dangerous, as financial markets historically repeat similar patterns of fear and greed [00:40:22] [00:40:30] [00:40:48] [00:41:00]. He believes the market is becoming more efficient, making opportunities through inefficiency less likely [00:41:33] [00:41:35] [00:41:46].

Pancakes observed that the recent “bear market” felt different, with many 2021 entrants staying active on social media throughout, unlike previous cycles where people completely left the market [00:42:01] [00:42:16] [00:42:25] [00:42:46]. He believes that sticking around through bear markets is “actually really where you make your money” [00:42:58].

Jim suggests the market might be “muted and boring” for the next 12 months, as many are overestimating the short-term impact of the ETF [00:43:09] [00:43:14] [00:43:31]. He doesn’t see significant new money inflows, noting that recent market increases have been driven by “crypto natives” [00:44:04] [00:44:07].

Airdrops and Profitability

Pancakes wonders if the current “airdrop season” is the last truly big one, questioning its sustainability [00:38:00] [00:38:02] [00:38:08]. Anom thinks airdrops will become “less and less profitable” [00:39:05]. He described the Gito airdrop as “insane” due to the high profits despite many people missing the opportunity [00:39:07] [00:39:22]. He advises those with capital to deploy it on new and solid protocols, as the ease of retail printing money might not return [00:39:41] [00:40:00].

Technology, Privacy, and Human Connection

The Dystopian Side of Technology

Jim expressed an “anti-tech” stance, believing that technological progression comes at the “detriment of human experience” and leads to a loss of genuine human engagement and connection [00:25:32] [00:25:40] [00:26:13] [00:26:18]. He compared Singapore, which he found “sterile” and lacking identity, to a dystopian future that the world is gravitating towards [00:26:30] [00:26:38] [00:27:02]. He criticized the short attention span culture fostered by platforms like TikTok, which he believes undermines people’s ability to produce [00:27:10].

Pancakes agreed, noting his bearish view on social media, despite being adept at using it [00:27:51] [00:27:58]. He looks forward to deleting all social media when he reaches a certain level [00:28:06]. The conversation likened the gradual encroachment of technology on personal life to the “boil the frog” analogy, where small changes accumulate unnoticed [00:28:17]. The rapid technological progress since the 90s, especially regarding internet and phone usage, was highlighted as leading to a “dystopian” reality where younger generations spend excessive time on platforms like TikTok [00:28:45] [00:29:08] [00:29:32]. Concerns were raised about future job aspirations, with many seemingly only wanting to be famous on social media [00:29:43].

Anom believes that the current swing towards an “online side” is a pendulum that will eventually return to the middle [00:29:54] [00:30:01]. He stressed the importance of being present and taking time away from technology daily or weekly, especially in crypto bull markets where people can spend 16+ hours online, making excuses due to profit [00:30:05] [00:30:17]. He advised maintaining real-life connections and engagements, even if it means sacrificing some online time [00:30:52].

Pancakes noted that some individuals who have achieved “generational wealth” still remain “addicted” to the market, highlighting how crypto can become a personality rather than just a tool [00:31:15] [00:31:27]. He expressed a desire for technology that could incentivize “real life meetups and hangouts” to bring the human side back to the space [00:32:00]. He admitted to being “fully bought into that dystopia right now” in pursuit of his financial goals [00:32:37]. His pivot to music is an attempt to engage in more “personable creative” work that involves real-life interaction, even if it still touches upon blockchain [00:32:42] [00:33:07].

Anom initially got “hooked on crypto” due to the ability to build community and relationships with like-minded individuals globally, appreciating that it felt less “toxic nonsense” than mainstream social media [00:33:30] [00:33:48] [00:33:56]. This community building aspect was rooted in a shared “core ethos of crypto” like decentralization, privacy, and elimination of middlemen [00:34:04]. He hopes the pendulum swings back from the “1984 like crazy dystopia type of stuff” [00:34:21].

Privacy Solutions in Crypto

The discussion touched upon the argument that public ledgers could be used for surveillance [00:17:15] [00:18:42]. However, the point was made that privacy can be engineered into crypto through technologies like privacy-centric ZK rollups [00:18:47]. Anom mentioned projects working on privacy solutions, including Elusive and Nym [00:20:10] [00:20:16] [00:20:24]. He believes these smart teams are less vocal on Twitter than traders but maintain a “cyberpunk mindset” [00:20:39] [00:20:47].

Onboarding and Education in Crypto

A major challenge for the crypto space is how confusing it can be for new users outside of Crypto Twitter [00:21:07] [00:21:12]. Anom believes it’s the responsibility of the crypto community to provide better educational resources for newcomers [00:21:49] [00:21:51]. He expressed concern that many prominent figures on YouTube and other platforms fail to protect new retail investors, who lack the means to vet accounts, projects, or advice [00:22:13] [00:22:22] [00:22:28].

Pancakes shared an anecdote about a lawyer friend who got into crypto and followed well-known figures who had either been involved in scams or were likely to be, highlighting the difficulty for newcomers to discern reliable information [00:22:45] [00:22:58]. He described the “deep crypto” space as intimidating, despite being welcoming to those who know where to look for genuine information [00:23:17] [00:23:21] [00:23:37]. Both agreed that larger platforms with knowledgeable individuals are needed to improve the information flow [00:23:53] [00:24:06] [00:24:08].

Future of Crypto and Key Areas

Anom sees consumer-facing applications as a “big Catalyst and Driver” for the next cycle [00:45:22] [00:46:00]. He believes there have been about two years of development for highly scalable apps that rely on crypto, contrasting them with early, hyped gaming companies that lacked substance [00:45:33] [00:45:36] [00:45:48]. He expects a few high-quality apps to gain over a million daily active users, running on crypto in the background without users even realizing it [00:45:57] [00:46:00] [00:46:03].

Anom is bullish on blockchain-based apps that benefit the user without requiring them to be a “super blockchain native human” to use them [00:46:38] [00:46:40] [00:46:45]. He argues that rather than focusing heavily on educating everyone on bridging chains, the focus should be on building seamless, consumer-driven social apps that can be used by anyone [00:47:07] [00:47:21] [00:47:24] [00:47:43] [00:47:46].

Alpha Predictions

Anom provided several “alpha” predictions for the market:

• Cosmos and Rollups: He considers Cosmos the most “underlooked area” right now, especially the rollup space [00:50:15] [00:50:17] [00:50:20]. He sees interesting potential with IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication) for enshrining rollups and building native fraud proofs, considering it a superior design to many Ethereum rollups [00:50:24] [00:50:37] [00:50:41]. He noted strong teams like Celestia, Dymension, Sovereign Labs, and Anisha building in this area [00:50:43] [00:50:47] [00:50:52] [00:50:57].
• AI x DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks): These two areas are expected to be “huge,” especially for “boomers” who can easily understand how DePIN improves business costs [00:51:12] [00:51:25] [00:51:30] [00:51:33] [00:51:39].
• Memecoins: Memecoins are predicted to be “ridiculous” this cycle, given people’s propensity to gamble on low-probability outcomes like sports parlays or lotteries [00:51:59] [00:52:03] [00:52:19] [00:52:23] [00:52:33]. He sees memecoins as a reflection of societal absurdity and a way for people in difficult economic situations to seek significant gains [00:52:49] [00:52:51] [00:53:02]. Pancakes added that memecoins are where the “X’s are” for those seeking large multipliers rather than modest gains [00:53:13] [00:53:23].

Jim’s Alpha Prediction:

• NFT Resurgence: Jim’s “gut tells him that NFTs have a resurgence,” with digital intellectual property becoming a key topic [00:53:50] [00:53:52] [00:53:55]. He sees the Apple VR set as a potential catalyst for this resurgence [00:54:02] [00:54:04].

General Advice for Crypto Participants

• Health and Well-being: Jim offered advice to “eat healthy and hug your moms” [00:54:12] [00:54:16]. He also suggested reading books and taking baths [00:54:18].
• Listen to the Right People: Pancakes advised listening to individuals like Anom, who conducts extensive research [00:54:36] [00:54:42].
• High Conviction Plays: Pancakes emphasized focusing on high-conviction plays, which he believes are “underrated” [00:57:12] [00:57:14] [00:57:22]. He warns against letting the timeline sway opinions unless there’s a significant, reasoned change [00:57:18] [00:58:25].
• Explore Underrated Protocols: He mentioned Parcel as an underrated platform allowing people to bet on housing markets without needing deep crypto knowledge, describing it as simple to use and beneficial for non-crypto natives [00:56:29] [00:56:45] [00:56:59].
• Get a Job: Pancakes stressed the importance of getting a job, especially a crypto-related one, as it provides income, capital for investment, and forced engagement with the market [00:58:42] [00:58:49] [00:59:03] [00:59:05].